Just Having Analytics Fun

by Billy Caughey Domain experts... what do they know??? Starting out as a statistician, I thought I was big stuff. I had an ego from studying an advanced topic. My math skills made me powerful and desired as a members of various teams. I was just looking for that one opportunity! While a study coordinator at the Rocky Mountain Center for Occupational and Environmental Health, I had such an opportunity. I was asked by one of the researchers to look into something. I fiercely dug into the data. I found associations and made great calculations. I put my findings into spreadsheet and, with a chip on my shoulder, fired off my fingers. I can't begin to stress the amount ego I had at this point. I was a study coordinator and a statistical research assistant. I was the man, or so I thought. Soon after I fired off my findings, I received an email back. The researcher was confused by my findings and not sure if they were correct. I tried to implement some level of composure, a...

by Billy Caughey An encounter with creative analytics... A few weeks ago, I came in contact with this term called "creative analytics". Here's the background of the situation. As a classically trained (meaning proof and theorem) statistician, I try to meet the assumptions necessary to use the method. After all, that is what I was taught to do in college. Data just seemed to perfectly fit assumptions, and if it didn't, transformations were easy enough to perform. What happens when college education meets real world data? This is where my first encounter with creative analytics came into play. In reviewing some data, I found myself looking at what could be considered a bell curve. I found myself torn between two options: Option 1: call it Normal and move on with my analysis  Option 2: prove the distribution was in fact Normal and continue with my analysis  Ultimately, I sided with option 2. I began recalling methods to prove this distribution was Normal...

by Billy Caughey Introduction At the University of Utah, I had the chance to take Stochastic Processes. It was in this class I ran into the classic problems about queuing. These problems usually involved a grocery store clerk, a few customers, and a grand question like:  What is the probability the store clerk completes the current customers order before the next customer enters the line, given there are two customers already in line?  A simple distribution is stated and you have all the pieces you need. Well, except for one piece. This piece was a picture, or diagram, of the event. When you draw the picture, you realize this isn't a question of going from two customers to one customer. The question becomes three parts: Moving from two customers to one customer: event where the clerk completes the order BEFORE the next customer arrives Moving from two customers to three customers: event where the clerk completes the order AFTER the next customer ...