Posts

This week's topic...

A Modeling Process

by Billy Caughey Introduction Have you ever been called a data wizard or witch doctor? I have! Let me give you an example of this. I used to work with a domain expert who had a jokester and jovial side. On one occasion he asked for a very sophisticated data analysis. He jokingly said, "Billy, don't you just have a Stata button you can push and produce the results?". We both laughed because I knew he was joking; however, that moment has stayed with me. This domain expert had some knowledge of statistics and knew this wasn't how it worked. Unfortunately, I would argue for ever one domain expert or business leader that knows how difficult analytics can be, there is at least 10 who do not. So, what in the name of wizardry is the secret? It's really quite simple. It's knowing a modeling process that can structure your efforts. A modeling process can help put everything into perspective, define timelines, and help understand how to present results back to...

Domain experts are your friend

by Billy Caughey Domain experts... what do they know??? Starting out as a statistician, I thought I was big stuff. I had an ego from studying an advanced topic. My math skills made me powerful and desired as a members of various teams. I was just looking for that one opportunity! While a study coordinator at the Rocky Mountain Center for Occupational and Environmental Health, I had such an opportunity. I was asked by one of the researchers to look into something. I fiercely dug into the data. I found associations and made great calculations. I put my findings into spreadsheet and, with a chip on my shoulder, fired off my fingers. I can't begin to stress the amount ego I had at this point. I was a study coordinator and a statistical research assistant. I was the man, or so I thought. Soon after I fired off my findings, I received an email back. The researcher was confused by my findings and not sure if they were correct. I tried to implement some level of composure, a...

Creative Analytics

by Billy Caughey An encounter with creative analytics... A few weeks ago, I came in contact with this term called "creative analytics". Here's the background of the situation. As a classically trained (meaning proof and theorem) statistician, I try to meet the assumptions necessary to use the method. After all, that is what I was taught to do in college. Data just seemed to perfectly fit assumptions, and if it didn't, transformations were easy enough to perform. What happens when college education meets real world data? This is where my first encounter with creative analytics came into play. In reviewing some data, I found myself looking at what could be considered a bell curve. I found myself torn between two options: Option 1: call it Normal and move on with my analysis  Option 2: prove the distribution was in fact Normal and continue with my analysis  Ultimately, I sided with option 2. I began recalling methods to prove this distribution was Normal...

Draw the picture

Image
by Billy Caughey Introduction At the University of Utah, I had the chance to take Stochastic Processes. It was in this class I ran into the classic problems about queuing. These problems usually involved a grocery store clerk, a few customers, and a grand question like:  What is the probability the store clerk completes the current customers order before the next customer enters the line, given there are two customers already in line?  A simple distribution is stated and you have all the pieces you need. Well, except for one piece. This piece was a picture, or diagram, of the event. When you draw the picture, you realize this isn't a question of going from two customers to one customer. The question becomes three parts: Moving from two customers to one customer: event where the clerk completes the order BEFORE the next customer arrives Moving from two customers to three customers: event where the clerk completes the order AFTER the next customer ...

Where did I put that tool...

Image
by Billy Caughey Introduction In a previous blog, the analytics tool belt was discussed. Common tools were discussed and some rationale was given as to why you should have those tools. What I have come to realize is even if a tool is commonly used, there are times I still don't have it in my tool belt. I will be the first one to admit I have had to go looking for a tool in the hopes of adding it to my tool belt. In those cases where you don't have a common tool, what are you supposed to do? Where are you suppose to look to find a common tool? When do you know you've added the tool to your tool belt? Let's explore these questions a little more together. Where can you pick up the tool? I wish there was a magic answer I could give you here, but there isn't. There are too many options to list where you can pick up a tool. This shouldn't give you any stress. In fact, this should excite you. There are plenty of analytics "tool stores" for y...

Analytics Tool Belt

by Billy Caughey Grandpa’s Tool Belt Growing up, I worked with my Grandpa in residential HVAC. On the first day of the job, I arrived at Grandpa’s workshop at the designated hour. On the workbench was a sturdy, but well used, tool belt. Already in the tool belt were the tools I would need to be successful in residential HVAC: claw hammer, panning hammer, screwdrivers, tin snips, a metal marker, measuring tape, screws, and nails. Grandpa told me I would be able to do my job if I remembered to take my belt with me. That lesson has stayed with me throughout the years. Each place I have worked, endeavor I have taken, and goal I have chased have all required a tool belt to be successful. Analytics is no different. Some of the biggest tool belts I have ever seen have been worn by those engaged in analytics. Due to the depth and width of analytics, I would argue no two tool belts have the same exact tools. With that said, almost all tool belts have some basic items. Basic Analyti...

Introduction in under 5 minutes

A quick introduction There are a lot of blogs which have a long introduction. They go into a long description of covering the 5 W's and such. Well, this isn't going to be one of them. The goal is for you, the reader, spend LESS THAN 5 MINUTES reading this!  A few weeks ago, we had a conversation about our passion and enthusiasm for and about analytics. That conversation led to this blog. After some brainstorming, we came up with what our goal was: to share our enthusiasm and passion for analytics through learning, applying, and teaching.  Learning Even though we have degrees and professional certifications in analytics, we are still students of analytics. As a field, analytics includes areas like statistics, machine learning, and artificial intelligence. In a broader sense, analytics could include areas like ETL, data engineering, and data structures as well. This means there is a lot to learn!  We will review methods, papers, articles, book...